Beyond Global Warming — Book Review
How Numerical Models Revealed the Secrets of Climate Change
The unsung heroes of our modern understanding of climate change and climate science began well back in the 60s when the work for computer simulation modelling of our Earth’s atmosphere began humbly based on science and mathematics alone. And from there, stemmed the findings of climate change. Work that began not to tell of change itself but simply to model and understand our atmosphere and try to see how it may change over time via mathematical modelling.
Here’s the profile of these two esteemed authors:
I think I’m honestly not worthy of reviewing their work with just opinion and notes…
But I’m going to try.
To summarize / review this book would be to dig into the copious scientific experiments and iteration taken to get to the conclusions of climate science. Like other scientific research publications, such work is beyond my purpose of reviewing. I simply want to highlight the findings and document what I learned form this book. And for anyone interested in doing numerical models or proving climate change themselves, it would help to digest this book after having acquired the mathematical and scientific prerequisite in order to fully appreciate decades of work poured in this direction, transition through the age of technology, to get to our point today.
Note that when they first started modelling the Earth’s atmosphere, findings were easily obscure and bizarre and did not accurately reflect it’s then-future. As these scientists worked, models progressed and technological options increased, the models themselves improved to the point they were able to project at least with a high degree of possibility that the Earth was warming. And with each iteration and improvement, this possibility of being accurate only grew. Nowadays, the models are again not necessarily going to be precise and accurate on the future, but certainly the closer the future it is predicting, the more likely it is already quite accurate year over year, even if it doesn’t get day to day precise. Obviously the further into the future it tries to model, those results start to lose both accuracy and precision. But needless to say, it is not necessary to be totally accurate and still be a good warning to us all that the Earth is warming and those consequences are dire, and humanity is on a collision course with natural disaster eventuality inevitability becoming the new norm.
Content — 3.5/5 Content is very relevant to formulation of our understanding of climate science and using mathematical models to micmick Earth’s conditions and project the future
Readability — 2/5 I’m rating the readability low because I’m biased, I can’t sit through scientific iteration and repetitiveness without getting a little antsy. Iteration is what science work entails, but reading it as a learning reader — that’s a tough one.
Relevance — 5/5 Relevant to every and any one capable of reading, if not every living being on this planet
My pet peeve about the cover, the cover was designed to capture book readers and elevate reads and sales. I don’t blame this strategy, however, the read is like a science log, so its hard to keep focussed on its eventual implicit reasoning on “How Numerical Models Revealed the Secrets of Climate Change”. It certainly did answer this question — the book and the science, but rather it was the delivery that failed to entertain.
Chapter 1: Greenhouse Effect + Global Warming
The chapter is like the atmospheric science 101 refresher, talking about all the factors that come into play when it comes to atmospheric layers, gases, heat, and radiation. I could dig into it, but I have to say I’m at student level on this one, if you tell me about it I would nod my head and agree cause I have exposure to this information, but for me to recite all the things that affect the atmosphere, I’ll score a fat zero. Here’s a diagram instead
I’ll list a few things to consider
- incoming shortwave (Sun), outgoing longwave (Earth) radiation
- Greenhouse Effect
- Aerosols and particulates
- Clouds
- Feedback loops like Water Vapor, Ice-Albedo, Carbon Cycle.
There’s way more to it though. I would just take a course yourself if you’re interested.
Chapter 2: Heat Trapping Envelope, Early Days…
Greenhouse gas effect is assessed in the early days of experiments and understanding, and the scientist quickly learned they can model this.
Chapter 3: 1-D Model
As they built that model, they went ahead and kept external factors out of it and just focused on a 1-dimensional model of heat.
By 1-D, we are referring to representing the atmosphere by a single vertical column (a line), in what we call a 1-D radiative-convective models.
This was a well known research effort, “Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity” by Manabe and Wetherald (1967), which applied a radiative-convective equilibrium framework to show how CO₂ changes influence temperature profiles.
Chapter 4: General Circulation Models
From there, GCMs were developed, which expanded on this success, by way of Atmosphere-Ocean GCMs, Atmosphere-Land GCMs, Earth System Models (ESM)
Atmosphere-Ocean GCMs: ocean heat transport and currents
Atmosphere-Land GCMs: evapotranspiration and vegetation effects
ESM: Biogeochemical cycles and feedback loops
Obviously with the introduction of satellites and better sensors and coverage improved the data collection and estimation process with higher spatial and temporal resolutions. The models were further improved with better cloud modelling via microphysics, cloud-radiation feedback; better understanding of aerosol chemistry and indirect effects on clouds.
Chapter 5: Early Numerical Experiments
The scientist took meticulous and gradual approach to coupling atmospheric and ocean processes together, while noting the sensitivity of CO₂, water vapor feedback and ice-albedo.
Chapter 6: Climate Sensitivity
Eventually, they were able to simulate the equilibrium achieved from increases or decreases in CO₂ or aerosols in the atmosphere.
Chapter 7: Glacial-Interglacial Contrast
Orbital Forcing (Milankovitch Cycles): Variations in Earth’s orbit and tilt drive long-term climate changes.
GHG Amplification: CO₂ and CH₄ levels increased during interglacial periods, amplifying warming initiated by orbital changes.
Ice Sheet Dynamics: Changes in ice volume and albedo significantly impacted global temperatures and sea levels.
Proxy Records: Ice cores and sediment records provided insights into past atmospheric composition and temperature variations, validating models.
Chapter 8: Oceans
Heat Transport: The ocean absorbs most of Earth’s excess heat, redistributing it via currents like the Gulf Stream and thermohaline circulation.
Carbon Sink: Oceans absorb CO₂, buffering atmospheric increases but leading to acidification.
Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling: Interactions, such as those in ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), influence weather patterns globally.
Modeling Oceans: Early ocean components in GCMs struggled with accurately resolving deep currents and coastal systems but improved with higher-resolution grids and better parameterizations.
Chapter 9: Cold Climate and Deep Water
Polar Regions: Sea ice and glacial melt influence albedo and ocean stratification, impacting thermohaline circulation.
Deep Water Formation: Processes in regions like the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean drive global ocean circulation, crucial for heat and nutrient transport.
Impacts of Warming: Climate change weakens deep water formation, potentially slowing or disrupting circulation systems like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
Paleoclimate Lessons: Past cold periods, such as the Younger Dryas, revealed tipping points in ocean circulation.
Chapter 10: Global Water Availability
Hydrological Cycle Intensification: Warmer temperatures increase evaporation and precipitation, leading to regional water imbalances.
Droughts and Floods: Some areas experience intensified droughts, while others face more frequent and severe flooding.
Snowpack and Glacier Melting: Shrinking snow and ice reduce water availability for regions reliant on meltwater, such as the Himalayas and Andes.
Groundwater Depletion: Overuse and slow recharge rates worsen water scarcity in arid regions.
Adaptation and Management: Strategies like improved irrigation, water storage infrastructure, and international cooperation are needed to manage the growing challenges of water availability.
However, this work is still ongoing as it is difficult to assess the exact extent in which some areas of the globe will be wetter or drier at different moments in the year.
How will humanity survive or cope without degrading or falling backwards — honestly I fear that to be impossible at this point from a realistic standpoint, I doubt we won’t.
From an optimist’s rationality, I would say many things will have to go right for us to fall forward. I honestly hope we do, for the benefit of all living beings on this planet. For the planet will surely out-survive us either way should we not steer course to betterment of ourselves and our society. It’s never been about the death of the planet, but rather the death of our forward moving society.
I hope I never see the day we decline, sadly the night is darkest before the dawn, and dusk hasn’t even set upon us yet.
